The stability of economic development is based, among other things, on the ability to forecast data. At a time when global climate change is moving extraordinarily fast, forecasting in this area is becoming essential for economic development, even in the short term, both at the level of the whole state and its individual regions. Today’s world is increasingly shifting towards sustainable development, which is closely linked to climate change, and ignoring this trend inevitably leads to the region lagging behind the national and global pace of development. However, Russian regions are limited in their ability to cope with budget deficits, which is why sustainable development in Russian regions is proceeding at a slower pace. Let us consider how climate models are shaping and how they affect the economies of the Russian regions.
What is a climate model
Climate models are used to calculate future climate and to create climate scenarios. They are created by scientists in various fields of exact sciences, but mathematical models are recognised as the most common ones. The construction of a climate model begins with the definition of a system of equations that are a mathematical description of the laws of physics operating in the climate system. The deeper the understanding of the climate and all aspects of the ecosystem goes, the more specialists (chemists, biologists and others) need to be involved in building the climate model.
The problem with predicting climate change is that it can only be studied in the current situation or by analysing past data (from recorded observations or biosphere studies). However, it is not possible to experiment and experimentally predict a point climate event in the future. The construction of theoretical models nevertheless makes it possible to roughly predict the prospects for the region’s economy, which is dependent on climate and climate variability.
Why eco-monitoring is needed
There are a number of driving forces behind climate change. These are both natural processes (seismic activity, solar activity, the spread of viruses, etc.) and anthropogenic factors (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, contamination of water, soil and atmosphere, industrial and domestic waste from human activities). If we talk about climate prediction on a global scale, we will talk about global monitoring of the chemical and physical state of all layers of the biosphere, cyclones, the Earth’s magnetic field, and so on. At regional level, eco-monitoring identifies soil, water and air conditions. But a complete climate model of any region is built on the basis of data from both local regional and global monitoring of the Earth, a part of the world or a continent.
What is so special about the climate change in Russia
According to Roshydromet estimates, climate change in our country is about 2.5 times more intense than the global average. This is largely due to the volume of greenhouse gas emissions from industrial production, and to the specifics of the climate: most of Russia experiences sub-zero temperatures for at least half a year. The freezing temperatures also contribute to the fact that all housing and public areas are heated, that people prefer to travel by car and cannot, for example, ride a bicycle all year round or walk as many people in Europe do. In addition, in Russia, cities stand farther apart from each other than in the West.
Sustainable development and climate
Climate is clearly a factor in sustainable development. Climate change can trigger collapses in areas such as construction, transport links, manufacturing, tourism, and others. In fact, these are the main points on which regional development plans are built.
For example, when planning the construction of a building, the weather conditions of the area, the temperature regime, and the level and nature of precipitation must be taken into account. In the Far North of Russia, in permafrost conditions, houses are built of stronger and more frost-resistant materials than in the central part of the country, and roofs are designed for a greater load due to the abundance of snow which persists here for more than eight months a year. As far back as in the olden days, people in the North built wooden huts with windows and entrances raised high off the ground (to prevent snow from freezing), which became a characteristic feature of local architecture.
To assess the adverse thermal impact on the walls, the frost resistance of the materials is assessed. In the southern regions, on the other hand, there is little need for such things. Here, buildings with glass verandas and open galleries are more common.
Nowadays the principles of green economy and sustainable development are being actively introduced in the construction sphere, and in this regard promising projects involve the construction of buildings with low-energy use options, sophisticated waste management system and so on. The construction of green buildings requires more financial expenses than the construction of “old-style” buildings. But despite the incentives offered by the Russian government to stimulate “green” construction, such projects are beyond the means of many regions of the country.
Climatic conditions are also taken into account when laying roads, building bridges and procuring and operating river transport. If large industrial facilities are located in the region, their operation also requires careful analysis of the local climate and timely response to climate change in order to avoid environmental disasters or industrial accidents.
Regional climate models of Russian regions
- The Russian Arctic
Approximately one third of the entire Arctic zone is located in Russia. Despite the region’s extreme climatic conditions, it is home to 1.95 million people, around 1.4% of the country’s population. Among them are representatives of 26 indigenous peoples of the North, Siberia and the Far East. The region has a strong industrial infrastructure: about 80% of Russian gas, over 90% of nickel and cobalt, 60% of copper, 96% of platinoids and 100% of barite are mined in the region.
The climate model of the Nenets Autonomous District shows that the region has seen an increase in average monthly temperatures and humidity levels in winter from 2002 to 2013. In Naryan-Mar, the level of oxygen in the air dropped by 0.98%. This data once again confirms the fact of global warming, for the sake of which radical measures are needed to curb it.
There are a number of problems which need to be resolved in order to ensure the region’s sustainable development in the future. These now include the increasing lagging behind of some regions in terms of socio-economic development (Chukotka, Taymyr and Yamalo-Nenets AOs, and the Murmansk Oblast), the deteriorating demographic situation and disintegration of the settlement system, and the lack of new competitive and more environmentally friendly industrial technologies.
In order to achieve the goals of sustainable development in the Russian Arctic, there is a need to develop two interrelated strategies, one for areas of traditional natural resource use and the other for areas of active economic (industrial) development, with the interests and prospects for the continued existence of the indigenous population taken into account in both options.
Attention to climate change can bring a number of positive innovations: for example, reduction of energy costs, transition to biofuels (primarily made from agricultural and forestry waste). The establishment of eco-settlements and the development of ecotourism in the northern regions could be a promising avenue for developing the region’s undeveloped and economically depressed areas, as well as helping indigenous peoples, whose traditional livelihoods and traditional forms of economic activity have been threatened by climate change, to adapt.
The long-term development goals of the Murmansk Oblast contain a number of projects, some of which require high financial outlays, some of which do not. The former include the installation of carbon capture and storage (CCUS) systems in the energy production chain. Less costly are projects to create zero-emission growth areas. The low-cost measures are those to find additional sources of finance — carbon tax and adaptation fees.
- Krasnodar Region
Russia’s southern regions are popular summer and winter resorts, and tourism is highly developed here. This is largely why the Krasnodar Region has been a leader among Russia’s regions in recent years in terms of investment attractiveness and economic dynamism. The region’s economy is based on natural, industrial, technological and infrastructural development factors. Traditionally, the region’s main areas of economic activity have been agriculture, transport and recreation.
The implementation of a sustainable development strategy becomes necessary here due to the high population density and the developed network of protected areas with high biodiversity.
In implementing the Krasnodar Region’s sustainable development goals, regional administrations are faced with a variety of objective problems, such as the need to provide the existing economic structure with the necessary resources while simultaneously reducing negative environmental impacts, eliminating accumulated environmental damage, improving the economic structure, and creating the institutional conditions for optimising the use of natural resources. Preserving the region’s natural systems and maintaining environmental quality standards are fundamental to creating favourable living conditions for Krasnodar Region residents, and are important for the economic security of the nation as a whole.
In June 2022, Krasnodar adopted new sustainable development norms. They concern the organisation of residential space (parking spaces, landscaping of courtyard areas), calculation of the number of visits by residents to clinics and hospitals, and so on.
For the past 15 years Krasnodar has hosted an annual business forum, Strategy for the South: Sustainability or Growth? This year the forum took place on 29 September. During the forum Alexey Krylovsky, Executive Director of Leontievsky Centre — AV Group stated: “The Southern growth pole, by which we mean the combined Southern Federal District and North Caucasus Federal District, continues to be a zone of accelerated development. We are recording growth in the Rostov Region, Dagestan, Chechnya and Sevastopol. Priority areas traditionally include the trade and transport and logistics cluster, the tourism and recreation cluster and the agro-industrial cluster, as well as the creative industries. The flagship project, of course, is the southern export-import hub, and demand for it will grow regardless of the geopolitical situation”.
Due to the fact that Russia has vast territorial reserves, many regions lie in different climatic zones and have different economic opportunities, each region needs its own development plan based on the monitoring of climate patterns, its present and projected future.
Cover photo: Handout / Getty Images
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