Opening COP27, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said climate change was happening at “catastrophic speed”, the world was “hurtling down the highway to climate hell” and the planet was “sending a distress signal”. He commented on the report of the World Meteorological Organization (the United Nations’ specialized inter-governmental agency for meteorology) prepared for the Sharm el-Sheikh conference. It indicates that already this year the average global temperature will exceed the pre-industrial period (1850–1900) by about 1.15 °C.
The rate of warming in Russia is 2.5 times higher than the global average, and in the Russian Arctic zone, 3.7 times higher. Temperatures in the Arctic have risen by more than 4 °C over the previous 30 years. Warming is inevitably accompanied by a reduction in sea ice extent. According to long-term observations, it has shrunk by more than three times over the past 10 years. This was reported at the conference by S.M. Anoprienko, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation.
More than 62,000 participants from official delegations of 197 countries and international organisations attended the event. More than 3,000 journalists covered the JOP27.
As a result, it was possible to agree on the creation of a financial fund, Loss and Damage Compensations, to help countries, especially those in the Global South (Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania), which are particularly vulnerable to climate risks, despite their own minimal carbon footprint. The initiators of this project suggest that such offsets should be at least $100 billion a year. The “landmark document” adopted by the conference calls for a transition committee of 24 countries to determine the modalities of the fund. After that, a group of countries is to present its recommendations at next year’s COP28 conference in the United Arab Emirates.
The countries of the European Union and the United States have demanded that China be required to contribute to the fund. Given that China is on the list of developing countries, no agreement has been reached on this point, while the measure remains under active discussion.
COP27 President and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry praised the outcome of the conference, noting that “the work that has been done here and the results we have achieved together are a testament to our collective will as a community of nations to express a clear message that is loud today, that multilateral diplomacy still works”. Reporting on the catastrophic flooding in Pakistan in the summer of 2022 that killed more than one thousand seven hundred people and displaced tens of thousands, he called the event a “loud alarm bell” about what awaits the planet beyond the 1.5 °C temperature limit.
It is worth recalling that since Egypt was chosen to host the UN climate change conference COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh and the United Arab Emirates COP28 in November 2023, the Arab countries have intensified joint action on climate change strategies.
As 2021 draws to a close, a series of statements have been prepared, reflecting the growing contribution of countries in the region to global efforts to combat climate change:
7 October 2021 — The UAE announced the Clean Zero by 2050 Strategic Initiative;
23 October 2021 — Saudi Arabia has announced targets to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2060 as part of the Kingdom’s Green Initiative.
On October 25, 2021, the Saudis held a summit of the Middle East Environmental Initiative to develop a regional roadmap to jointly address climate change, announcing new projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the region, investment in solutions for a circular carbon economy, development of a regional carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) centre, among others.
December 2021 — Egyptian Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said that Egypt’s СО2 strategy to transition to clean energy and reduce carbon dioxide emissions is based on 3 principles:
- promoting natural gas as a transition fuel;
- maximising the use of renewable energy;
- preparation of a plan to expand the use of hydrogen fuels.
Therefore, it was expected that hydrogen and carbon capture in its various forms would be one of the leading topics on the COP27 margins.
Justifiably at the conference, most countries reiterated their call for phased reductions in the use of fossil fuels, seen as the main cause of the global climate crisis. While the Glasgow COP26 agreement already required states to “review and strengthen” their climate strategies for 2030 by the end of 2022, few did so.
However, it is clear that the emission reduction plans submitted before COP27 would reduce projected global emissions by less than 1% by 2030. Meanwhile, scientists argue that countries need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43% to keep temperature rise within the 1.5 °C target set by the Paris Agreement.
At the same time, many delegates to the conference expressed confidence that the world has not yet developed a clear, science-based strategy to offset rising global temperatures. Given the unappreciated consequences of the global transition to renewables, some countries, including Saudi Arabia, India, China and Russia, insist that it is premature to move away from fossil fuels, and the current energy crisis has shown how dangerous it is to curtail investment in oil and gas. The energy of the past has a future and must be embraced — not banned, but supported and invested in the technological upgrading of all areas of the fuel and energy sector.
The delegation of the Russian Federation, led by the Presidential Adviser, Special Representative of the President of Russia on Climate Issues R. Edelgerieff, stressed the need to maintain a depoliticised and result-oriented approach.
It should be noted that the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2050, approved by Resolution No. 3052-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 29 October 2021, demonstrates a varied approach to achieving carbon neutrality with sustainable growth of the Russian economy.
The strategy is based on two scenarios — inertial and target (intensive). The target scenario is taken as the basis. The scenarios differ in terms of sets of measures to decarbonise the Russian economy.
The target scenario has as its key objective ensuring Russia’s competitiveness and sustainable economic growth in the context of the global energy transition.
Macroeconomic conditions of the target scenario assume outstripping growth rates of non-energy exports (up to 4.4% annually). Contributing to sustainable economic growth will be outpacing growth rates of fixed capital investment (3.7% annually) and stable growth of real disposable income (2.5% annually). At the same time, a more moderate decline of energy exports from 2030 is expected than in the inertial scenario, including due to a reorientation towards products of high redistribution and implementation of measures to improve the competitiveness of Russian energy exports in foreign markets.
As a result, annual economic growth should be higher than the world average until 2050 (up to 3% per year).
Realisation of the target scenario would require investments in greenhouse gas emission reductions of around 1 per cent of GDP in 2022–2030 and up to 1.5–2 per cent of GDP in 2031–2050. Among the decarbonisation activities are the provision of support measures for adoption, replication and scaling-up of low- and no-carbon technologies, promoting the use of secondary energy resources, tax, customs and fiscal policy changes, green finance development, measures to maintain and enhance the absorption capacity of forests and other ecosystems, supporting technologies for capturing, using and reusing greenhouse gases.
Thus, in the target scenario, it is possible to grow the economy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, their net emissions should decrease by 60% of the 2019 level and 80% of the 1990 level. Further implementation of this scenario would allow Russia to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
The share of energy exports between 2031 and 2050 would decline rather moderately, by about 2.1 per cent annually. This will be possible due to the development of downstream exports.
Cover photo: Mika Baumeister / Unsplash
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