According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), the energy sector was responsible for 76% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. And most of the electricity was generated by burning coal, which pollutes the atmosphere with heavy metals, sulphur dioxide and other toxic substances. But experts predict that this will change in 20-30 years — traditional energy will become more ‘green’.
Renewable energy development
According to calculations by ING Group, a global financial institute, the share of energy produced from renewable sources (RES) will reach 70% by 2040, which will reduce carbon dioxide emissions accelerating global warming by 80%. Russia is not staying away from this trend: out of 2.9 GW of new generation to be commissioned in the unified energy system of the Russian Federation in 2022, 30% will come from renewables.
Solar power
The International Energy Agency predicts that the share of solar power capacity will reach 24% by 2040. One of the most pressing problems associated with it is the lack of storage methods. But a solution has already been found: a team of scientists from Singapore and Sweden has developed a system that could store solar thermal energy for 18 years. The system’s main component is a molecule made of hydrogen, carbon and nitrogen atoms that has special properties: it changes structure when exposed to sunlight and becomes a liquid. As required, heat can be released with a special catalyst and then the molecules can be reused, reverting back to their original structure.
Moreover, solar power is becoming cheaper: analysts at the international consultancy Wood Mackenzie predict that by 2030 it will be 17% cheaper than coal in Asian countries and 50% cheaper than coal in India. Already now, everyone on Earth can place a solar panel on the roof of their house and sell their surplus electricity to distribution companies. On average, the device pays for itself in five years, but despite the obvious benefits, city residents are in no hurry to switch to alternative energy. For example, EU authorities decided not to wait for citizens to show initiative and will start installing solar panels on all new residential buildings from 2029.
In 2021, China became the leader in solar power generation. But the country does not intend to stop there: the world’s largest solar power plant is being built in its territory, in the Tanger Desert. The electricity generated from it will reduce the consumption of coal by 1.92 million tons.
Photo: NovaWind JSC
Wind power plants
The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that by 2050, wind turbines will provide more than a third of the world’s electricity needs. The pace at which the industry is developing is truly inspiring. According to the World Wind Energy Council (WEC) 2021 report, the sector’s capacity has increased by 93.6 GW and now stands at 837 GW. In Russia, wind power generation is also growing rapidly: in March 2022, it was 532.3 million kWh, an increase of 53.8% compared to a year ago.
The largest wind turbine in the world, the GE Haliade-X, is installed in the port of Maasvlakte in Rotterdam in the Netherlands. It is 260 metres high and has a capacity of 14 MW. The record of the GE Haliade-X will soon be broken: the Danish company Vestas has announced the launch of the V236-15MW (15 MW) offshore wind turbine. It is capable of powering 20,000 homes and preventing the emission of 38,000 tons of carbon dioxide — a similar effect can be achieved by locking 25,000 cars with internal combustion engines out of operation for a year. The V236-15MW is scheduled for completion in 2026, with a prototype model ready in the second half of 2022.
In addition, Vestas intends to launch production of waste-free wind turbines. At present, the main problem hindering the development of the sector is related to the disposal of device blades — their lifecycle almost always ends up in a landfill. Vestas plans to recycle blades by 2040, becoming the first wind turbine manufacturer to make such a commitment.
Photo by: Aranga87 / iStock
Hydrogen energy
The Hydrogen Energy Council predicts that by 2050, 18% of global electricity consumption will come from hydrogen. This chemical element generates almost three times as much heat as oil and twice as much as coal and natural gas. In the green energy sector, it is produced by electrolysis: the current causes H2O to break down into hydrogen and oxygen.
Currently, mass use of green hydrogen is not possible due to its high cost, which is about three times higher than the price of its “grey” counterpart derived from fossil fuels. But experts believe that hydrogen will become cheaper from the current $3.70 per kg to $0.75 per kg by 2050 thanks to expansion of production volumes and reduction of costs of RES required for its generation. This is the forecast in a report by the analytical agency Rethink Energy, “Hydrogen Cleanup of the $10 Trillion Energy Industry”.
The head of energy at ING Group, Michiel de Haan, noted that for sectors such as aviation, heavy transport (used for transportation and construction of plants) and shipping, where no alternative to fossil fuels has yet been found, hydrogen energy could be a panacea.
Betting on gas
Experience in the EU has shown that a hasty switch to renewables leads to higher energy costs and a lower quality of life. One reason is the unstable productivity of renewables. For example, when the seas around northern Europe went dry, the UK wind farms contributed 4.9% of electricity generation instead of the expected 18%.
Natural gas can act as a bridge to renewable energy and ease the burden on the economy in this challenging period. Rystad Energy, an independent energy research consultancy, predicts that gas production will increase by 24% by 2040.
As Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin pointed out, natural gas will become an environmentally friendly alternative not only to coal, but also to nuclear power, which some countries, including Germany, consider unsafe. Therefore, the share of this fuel in the energy mix will increase from 22% to 25% by 2040.
In Russia, the transition from coal to gas has already begun. As part of the social gasification programme, which will be completed by 2030, almost 3 million private homes in our country will be able to stop burning solid fuels. Thermal power plants are also becoming more environmentally friendly. For example, Vladivostok and Anadyr CHPPs, Vorkuta CHPPs, and Ivanovo CHPP-2 have given up coal. According to power engineers’ calculations, this will reduce the amount of pollutant emissions into the atmosphere by 47% and the amount of wastewater by 50%. In addition, CHPPs will stop polluting the air with sulphur dioxide and ash.
Ecomodernisation of CHPPs
According to Elena Sharoykina, Chair of the Russian Public Chamber’s Commission on Ecology and Environmental Protection, it is not yet possible to completely give up using oil and gas as energy sources. But modern technology can significantly reduce the burden on the environment associated with their consumption.
On 25 January, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved a programme to modernise 41 GW of thermal power plants (about 25% of total capacity) between 2022 and 2031. An example of eco-modernisation of thermal power plants is the demolition of three old chimneys 105–120 metres high at Krasnoyarsk CHPP-1 and the construction of one new chimney 275 metres long (of which 25 metres underground for stability). According to Sergey Borodulin, director of CHPP-1, the air quality of the region is mainly affected by emissions released at a height of about 100 metres. The rest rises higher with the air currents and hardly harms people. And optimising the number of pipes has also freed up space to install modern electrostatic precipitators — devices that remove more than 99% of particulate matter and smoke from the emissions. Previously, the plant had battery cyclone catchers, with an efficiency of 95%.
Another eco-measure is an automatic emission control system. It continuously analyses the composition of smoke coming from the chimney and transmits the collected data to the Ministry of Nature every 20 minutes. In addition, statistics on particulate matter, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and other substances are published on the official website of the Siberian Generating Company (SGK).
The result of the eco-modernisation is a 25% reduction in emissions and an 80% reduction in dust concentrations. Oleg Petrov, technical director of SGK, noted that the final level of purification is even higher than the legislation requires. For example, in Russia the smoke from power plants may contain 150 mg of dust per cubic meter, in Europe it is 50 mg, while SGK’s CHPP emits no more than 20 mg.
Author: Vera Zhikhareva
Cover photo: yangna / iStock
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