27.10.2022
Climate change will make space debris more “liveable” and dangerous
Photo by: solarseven / iStock
Climate change will make space debris longer-lived and increase the risk of debris colliding with satellites and other orbiting vehicles. This is according to a study by the British Antarctic Survey, science news portal Phys.org reports.
According to the conclusions of scientists, the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere will lead to a long-term decrease in air density at high altitudes. Because of this, there will be less resistance for objects located between 90 and 500 kilometres above the surface of the planet.
Unlike the lower layers of the atmosphere, the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere are cooling. This reduces its density, weakening the drag for objects such as abandoned satellites and debris from space missions at these altitudes.
Reducing drag prolongs the lifetime of objects, keeping them in orbit longer, which increases the risk of collisions with active satellites and other space debris.
According to the European Space Agency, there are more than 30,000 traceable debris fragments larger than 10 centimetres in diameter and 1 million debris objects larger than 1 centimetre in low Earth orbit.
The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is the first realistic prediction of climate change in the upper atmosphere for the next 50 years.
Although many previous reports have considered the changes that would occur in the lower and middle atmosphere, the impact of climate processes on the upper atmosphere has been relatively poorly studied.
As of March 2021, there were around 5,000 active and inactive satellites in low-Earth orbit (up to 2,000 kilometres). This number increased by 50% between 2019 and 2020.
Thousands more may appear in orbit in the next decade. After decommissioning, these objects continue to orbit, but gradually slow down due to atmospheric drag, losing altitude until they burn up in the lower atmosphere.
The current Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space recommend that satellite operators make sure that end-of-life satellites are out of orbit within 25 years. However, the decreasing atmospheric density will lead to errors in planning and calculations.
Cover photo: janiecbros / iStock
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