Russia is developing a methodology for forecasting fuel and energy balances

Photo: official website of the State Duma of the Russian Federation

The Russian Energy Agency of the Russian Ministry of Energy has started developing a methodology for forecasting fuel and energy balances (FEBs), including measures for gasification.

It is planned that the regions, in addition to the annual FEB, will have to develop a prospective balance up to and including 2030. This will require forecasting gas demand, calculating inter-fuel competition, and estimating the potential increase in natural gas consumption as a result of fuel substitution, e.g. by replacing coal with gas. All data reflecting energy production, supply, transformation and consumption in terms of quantity and quality will be taken into account.

In order to simplify the work, to keep the data up to date and not to cause discrepancies, the Ministry of Energy of Russia has developed an automated calculator to generate a forecast FEB, taking into account inter-fuel competition. The calculator will analyse the data and make recommendations on the feasibility of converting entered fuel and energy consumption facilities to alternative fuels.

The Russian Energy Agency is also creating a prototype system for forecasting the development of the fuel and energy complex of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which may become operational as early as 2023. It will be based on an analysis of the socio-economic situation in the regions and their development plans.

Both the authorities and fuel and energy companies are interested in developing the FEB methodology. For the latter, development programmes and projected FEBs should play a fundamental role in decision-making.

Cover photo: UPictures / iStock